Quest Means Business   « Back to Blog Main
March 27, 2009
Posted: 1139 GMT

Spring has sprung, and of course that brings with it the inevitable claim that the "green shoots of recovery" are upon us.

This was emphasised by Larry Kantor of Barclays Capital writing in his latest client note that he saw signs of "green shoots."

His argument is that expectations are so low, the market is beaten and the prognosis so grim, that it is time to start being more aggressive in investment decisions to take advantage of the situation. He believes a turnaround starts in Asia and quickly moves to other markets not so badly affected by financial collapse.

In other words, countries like Britain and the U.S. which are at the center of the financial meltdown are going to be amongst the last to recover.

There is solid common sense in Kantor's views. There has been so much unprecedented action by policy makers on the monetary, fiscal and regulatory front that recovery is inevitable. It is just a question of when and how strong.

Are you seeing the green shoots of recovery in your economic life yet ?

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Filed under: Banking •Business •Quest Means Business

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Jan Schultink   March 27th, 2009 12:25 pm ET

In Israel the situation is probably not as bad as in other parts of the world (touch wood).

I think that at some stage the "panic freeze" of big ticket expenditures will ease, consumers will need to replace that broken laundry dryer, and factories will start running out of spare parts again. Maybe not "green shoots" but a return of a bit of "normality" in the economy.

Edson Siquara   March 27th, 2009 2:40 pm ET

Mr. Quest, here in Brazil not only things are not as bad as in the US and UK, but we already see signs of a turnaround. It might be too early to be optimistic, and I believe that if we start to see real results related to the actions the policy makers have been doing around the World, mainly in the US and China, the recovery will start sooner than expected.

Keep up the good work man, the QMB is a must see show.

Seruserry   March 27th, 2009 6:54 pm ET

Hi Mr Richard,

Forget Green shoots of recovery in this recession so fast. This recession proved that all analysts are wrong baring one. Now do we believe and put our money in stocks again. Never!!!!!! come on grow up guys. There is no more wall street.....?????

Craig Eyles   March 27th, 2009 7:54 pm ET

The "Green Shoots" theory show a ntoehr reason why to start investing in Australia.
We have to have an award for the "best reccession quote" of 2009.
Road To Hell
Green Shoots

bondy21   March 28th, 2009 10:45 am ET

After reading out an email on Friday's program from someone asking you advice about which bank stock to buy you said something to the effect that "if I knew I would not be telling you".

Richard, you must understand what makes stock prices go up: people buy them, the more they buy the more they go up.

So to say that if you wanted the price of a stock to go up you would not hide this information, unless you knew something from insider information which is illegal, you gain nothing by this form of thinking.

Iyun aramide   March 29th, 2009 11:34 am ET

Seasons has got nothing to do in describing the financial mess u experts got us into.The worst part of this tale is that there was no warning from expert firm,not even a slight hint was suspected by the so called biz analyst..My advice is that the west should look back to where they got the last free cash/buissness kinda partnership and invest Africa.We have money but we want ur banks here like it used to be.equality!etc

Cho, Jae-hwan   March 30th, 2009 12:19 am ET

Not quite sure here in Seoul. Well the KOSPI Stock market in here has been move up these days, And I heard that most of the Asian stock markets are also having a positive situation.

That's just a statistic. As a university student in South Korea, High university registration fee problem, increasing job cuts etc..making me feel that Asia didn't reached the exact turnaround.

My argument cannot be sure to answer your question. But One thing you have to know, Asian's didn't feel happy too much about the turnaround!

Gail Ellis Duncan   March 30th, 2009 7:23 am ET

Do you think you could have a show where the few who have all the bucks where invited on (a) show and have questions answered by the people? On this same show, can you have people with solutions to the monetary problems (outside the mainstream that is) speak? Topics also included would be fair trade, equal distribution of wealth, no monopoly on human resources and why are basic needs expensive and only for a few. Yea, a bet that show would be awesome.

Digby   March 30th, 2009 1:44 pm ET

There seems to be a good bit of pent up market energy/money that just needs confidence to be released. One remains astonished by the effect of confidence vis-a-vis actual need-supply-demand that we all know exists. Another reminder that the horn blown loudest is the one heard.

I've been prognosticating to skeptical friends and family that this will be over by year end, in fact we might be in yet another bubble.

I suspect we will be living bubble to bubble from now on.

Brian Lory   March 30th, 2009 4:03 pm ET

Richard, keep me informed on the G20 activities! Cheers.....

Paul Papadopoulos   March 30th, 2009 6:03 pm ET

Oh Shoot Richard your green shoots have got frostbite and now they're black!

Nick   March 30th, 2009 6:30 pm ET

The banking cartel namely the Federal Reserve should follow our old institutions into the oblivion of the past.

Nick   March 30th, 2009 6:35 pm ET

The banking cartel, namely the Federal Reserve Central Bank, should follow the old obsolete institutions such as General Motors into the oblivion of the past, so that something new can arise out of the ashes.

Kenneth ERONMWONSUYI   April 1st, 2009 8:13 pm ET

I was very sad about the line- up of G20 leaders, because this not the true representation of world political leaders, and I believed these very few leaders can not solve the world financial recession by selecting few political cacus, leaving african powerful leaders aside of the G20. If I may ask, who appointed these few leaders to speak on behalf of other countries like Nigeria and african nations who supplied, and contributes to the world economy,like crude oil, and moreso, african leaders who deposited their ill-gotten money to western banks
Kenneth Eron

Sanherib   April 2nd, 2009 9:24 am ET

Yesterday, I stumbled on a show called "Quest means business" on CNN International, hosted by Richard Quest., about the G20 meeting.

The guest was Todd Benjamin, apparently an economic and financial expert at CNN.
He said that the cause of this crisis is "imbalance between countries that save too much and countries that spend too much". He put Germany, Japan and China in the first category, and the USA in the seciond.
He also said that until imbalance is not resolved, the situations like this crisis will not be solved.

Apparently, he says something similar to what I do in this topic, but only in apparence.

What he says is like saying that Sam and Hans are standing on the top of their respective mountains, while Ming is sitting down in his valley.
Then Sam starts transporting truckloads of material into Ming's valley, and one day discovers that he is sitting in a valley, with Ming watching him from his new mountain top. Then Sam blames some sudden imbalance between him, Hans and Ming.
The problem is not the imbalance, but what Sam did to put himself into that situation.

While Todd Benjamins analysis represents a small step in the right direction, it is ultimately a completely false diagnosis, as it wrongly identifies the causes of this crisis at a very superficial, apparent and trivial level.

If someone gets engaged in the logic of the globalisation equation, dislocates production and jobs abroad, invests in consumption etc. he cannot say that the guy who didn't fall (completely) into that trap (Germany) is part of the problem.
The problem is the globalizing Western capital that fuelled the Globalisation dynamics. It is that dynamics that is in cause, not a mere static imbalance in which Germany would be included, because Germany's position is not the product of that wrong Dynamics – the wrong process causing the crisis.
If anything, Germany would be part more of the solution than the problem. as it did not make so much the mistakes some others did (but suffers from them, nonetheless).

The host, Richard Quest, tried to separate the case of Germany from China, but couldn't find the right arguments, because he stayed in the erroneous diagnostic paradigm of his guest Benjamin (the imbalance between spending and saving), and while he was sensing that there was something wrong with it, he couldnt articulate what, because he lacked the right diagnostic paradigm – namely that this crisis is really caused by the globalization dynamic, principle, equation and process, not by a mere question of static imbalance.

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