Yesterday I heard that Russia's GDP Growth in 2009 will be negative. As a BRIC member it is not a good sign.
Personally I think that a growth of 0,0% both in the Euro Zone and in the US in fourth quarter of 2009 would be a great achievement and would open growth perspectives for 2010.
April 7th, 2009 11:21 am ET
we should not be jumping to conclusions just because for eg the market suddenly start moving into the positive zone
most experts do say that the recession will spil over in 2010
interestingly for markets like Pakistan which are not overly leveraged and have a small export base , the recession has more to do with the government mismanagement and internal issues rather than the global economy
if our internal issues get resolved quickly Pakistan can be a paradise for investors specially in the stock market as well as real estate
April 7th, 2009 1:24 pm ET
Following you on Twitter. Enjoying the chance (links) to check into your business comments. Thanks for updates...and the news of muffins, argy-bargy and the UK perspectives.
April 7th, 2009 4:27 pm ET
I'm with you part of the way. But if one wishes to use corporate earnings as in indicator, take a second look at "earnings per share." In the runup to the meltdown, earnings per share (EPS) were not as good as they appeared to be.
U.S. corporations were taking advantage of cheap, easy debt capital to buy back shares. By doing that, it was possible to manipulate the EPS trend. They reduced the number of shares. Earnings were divided by a smaller number and EPS went up.
So, one must be alert to manipulation of earnings figures. Enron did this by simply recategorizing expenses as capital investments. That isn't exactly what did them in but it did make their earnings look better than the underlying reality. (For quite a while but not forever.)
A tip: Some hard-core value investors compare companies based upon sales per share. It isn't perfect but it is more difficult to manipulate (they think) than EPS.
Go get 'em, tiger.
Financial & Investment Writer
London, England and Brittany, France
April 8th, 2009 1:17 am ET
do you actually think that we are on the road to recovery? seems market is clearly momentum driven, which makes it quite susceptible ...
Asad Wali Khan
April 21st, 2009 4:58 pm ET
I watched your program and enjoyed your unique way of covering economic activities around the world.
One question that has not been answered is why did the US government help out all the crashing banks and insurance companies when they could have spent the money to buy common people their homes and the people would pay the government back wiith no or low interest over a number of years. This way the billions could have gone directly to the people and they would have spent more on things to put in their new homes helping out local businesses and kick starting the economy in the US.
The US auto makers are also being rescured, this all goes against the core capitalist values, it is psuedo capitalism with the government intervention. Do you think capitalism has run its course and the world needs to evolve a newer more flexible model with more social responsibility and tighter monitoring of the way companies do business ?
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